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Sri Lanka to lift the Cricket T20 World Cup for 2012...
Ok, so my statement may be a bold one, but let's look at the facts:
1. Sri Lanka are used to the humid conditions; yes most top international T20 players experience hot conditions in the IPL and The Big Bash in Australia, but nothing quite compares to the humidity of a clammy night in Colombo. Being used to the conditions is certainly in Sri Lanka's favour, and of detriment to Australia and England, who are fielding some very inexperienced players at international level.
2. Home support; the ferociously fanatical support of a national side cannot be underestimated in T20 cricket. Having a home crowd behind you can inspire a bowler like Malinga to spear in a yorker, or a batsman like Dilshan to scoop a six. Also the crowds cheering and singing, or bands hammering the drums can help a team build momentum, in batting, or in the field. All Sri Lanka games in the tournament promise to be sell-outs, with over 90% being local supporters.
3. Mahela Jayawardene; an inspirational captain of the side, I would expect Mahela to find the peak of his batting prowess come the latter stages of the tournament. A complete batsman, and dominant on home soil, Mahela is comfortable against either the opening pace bowlers or spinners. He also has the full backing, respect and admiration of the whole team, and that is vital when backs are against the wall, and you need one or two players to rise to the occasion and put a performance for the captain and the team.
4. Lasith Malinga; he is arguably one of the best quick bowlers in T20 international cricket, especially at the business end of the innings, where his inswinging yorkers have become the most feared ball in T20 cricket. The fans will go wild in their Malinga wigs if he is on song.
5. Tillakaratne Dilshan; although not at his best of a couple of years ago, at T20 level you can never write off an explosive player such as Dilshan. He may follow a couple of duck innings with a big 50 at a run rate of 200+ in the next big game. Plus his underestimated spin bowling could play a key part in Sri Lanka's quest for glory. Dilshan also remains one of the best fielders at international level, a very important and sometimes forgotten part of the crash-bang-wallop T20.
6. Kumar Sangakkara; the legend of Kumar, adored by a nation, he has found a new lease of life with his batting since giving up captaincy after the last World Cup (50 overs) in 2011. Proof certainly seen by his recent three ICC awards. Along with AB De Villiers, and MS Dhoni, Sanga is undoubtedly up there amongst the best batsman-wicketkeepers. Sri Lanka will look at Sanga playing the Kallis role, letting the dashers and hitters play around him, although that's not to say Sanga can't accelerate when needed.
7. Middle to lower order biffers; for me this is an area where Sri Lanka have made great progress over the past 12 months. In Angelo Mathews, Jeevan Mendis and Thisara Perera, they now have batsmen who can hit the sixes in the latter stages of an innings. This will prove vital, as one of the criticisms in the past of the Sri Lankan batting line up is that if Dilshan, Mahela or Sanga didn't score decent runs, Sri Lanka would fail. There seems to be a more balanced look to the Sri Lanka batting line up now. And with confident and talented youngsters such as Thiramanne, Chandimal and Munaweera in the squad, batting depth is not an issue.
8. Mendis v Mendis; in both Ajantha and Jeevan, Sri Lanka have two Mendis spinners who could both do serious damage to the opposition. Ajantha seems to be rejuvenated after being re-selected into the team, and his carram ball is always dangerous.
9. Options for the captain; with several all-rounders in the squad (Dilshan, Mathews, Perera, J Mendis), Mahela will have options with who to give the ball to in addition to Malinga, Kulasekera and A Mendis. If the decision is to go with the extra batsman, for instance leaving out Kula, or resting Malinga, then the captain can still field a strong bowling unit.
Looking at the other teams in the tournament, Afghanistan have some fairly good batsman, but could struggle in the field with their inexperience at the highest level. However they may cause England some problems.
Ireland may have found their peak last year the 50 over World Cup and Zimbabwe just don't look strong enough.
None of these three are expected to progress out of their tough group stages.
Bangladesh: continue to flatter to deceive. They undoubtedly have the talent in their side to get out of their group (they would fancy beating both New Zealand and Pakistan on a given day), and will be reliant on Tamim Iqbal up the order with the bat, and Abdur Razzak could do well on the spinning Sri Lankan wickets. Bangladesh v New Zealand could be one of the most competitive group games, however I'd expect NZ to edge it.
England: side looks too inexperienced to me, a lot of bits and part players, and an inexperienced and hot headed captain in Stuart Broad. In the hot and humid conditions, with fans going wild, will the alien conditions suit this England side. The facts are that England just don't seem to do well on the sub-continent. Having said that, if the likes of Morgan, Hales, Buttler, and Bairstow click with the bat, anything's possible in T20 cricket, and spinner Danny Briggs is one to keep an eye on. But, realistically, if this England side makes it to the semi-finals, they would have done well.
Australia: similar to England, some inexpeienced players, particularly in the bowling, and apart from Shane Watson, the Aussie bowling looks extremely poor for the Sri Lankan pitches. Batting will be their strength, Watson, Warner, and the Hussey brothers. I'd expect Australia to bow out at the Super Eight stage.
West Indies: can see them go far, as with power batting from Gayle, Pollard, Dwayne Bravo, Russell, Sammy and Samuels you would never right off the Windies in a run chase. Mental toughness under pressure remains a problem for them though, but IF that batting line up performs consistently, you would pencil them in for a semi final spot at least. And at long last the Windies seem to have unearthed a little gem of a spinner in Narine, who will play such a key role for them in the bowling ranks. One could argue if Windies bat first then Narine is their key to success, above Gayle in fact, although the latter's spin bowling will also come into play on the turning wickets.
India: you can never write off the Indians in this format of the game, in Sri Lankan conditions, and they will be one of the tournament favourites with some outstanding battiing talents in Sehwag, Kohli, Gambhir, Yuvraj and MS Dhoni. However you get the feeling sometimes watching India play these days that several players are more concerned about their ever-bulging wallets rather than playing for team India. Have they gone a bit stale since their 50 over World Cup win? Certainly Sehwag gives one the impression that getting out early doors doesn't concern him. A lot depends on MS getting the best out of the likes of Sehwag, whilst looking to Kohli to showcase his talents on the big stage. India's spinners look solid enough with Harbajhan, Ashwin and Yuvi, and Zaheer is still a class act, if he has got over his injury problems. In spite of their talent throughout the team though, you do feel when push comes to shove, they will still rely on their national hero MS Dhoni to pull them through a tight match. If Dhoni has a great tournament then expect India to be Sri Lanka's biggest challenge to the trophy.
South Africa: under the sub-continent conditions you do feel that the likes of Steyn, Morne Morkel, and Wayne Parnell might not be as effective, and that bowlers such as Botha, Peterson and even JP Duminy will play a large part for the Proteas bowling. With regards to their batting SA can boast three of the best in Amla, Kallis and AB de Villiers, and JP is always a quick scorer in T20. Also one cannot forget the exciting Richard Levi in the opening slot. The memory of AB destroying Steyn in one over in the IPL including that extra cover drive for six of a leg stump yorker, remains very strong indeed. You would certainly back the batting to chase down a total more than defend one. If they have recovered their energy from the recent England tour, where Amla, AB and Kallis played in all three formats, a semi final beckons for this exciting team.
Pakistan: the enigma of international cricket. They play to extremes- natural ability is unquestionable, but on the other side of the coin, mental strength and application is their biggest downfall. However having won one T20 trophy and being runners up as well, they do have good pedigree in the shorter game, where long stays at the crease and application are not as important as test match or 50 over cricket. It will be a big test for skipper Mohammed Hafeez in his first major tournament in his new role, and with opening the batting plus bowling many overs, you'd have to question if it's going to be too much pressure on one man's shoulders. Kamran Akmal will also need to find improvement behind the stumps as taking wickets in T20 is vital. Pakistan's batting, without the experience of Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq, one would think will be their ultimate downfall. On paper they have best bowling unit of the competition, the ever dangerous swing of Umar Gul and the spin geniuses of Saaed Ajmal, Boom-Boom Afridi, with more than able support from Hafeez, will always keep Pakistan in the game if they set a total in excess of 140. However the problem for Pakistan lies in a run chase, and you would not make Pakistan favourites when chasing above 140 themselves. For this reason I think Pakistan will go out at the Super Eight stage. To get to the semis and beyond you'd prefer a team who is as comfortable defending a total as they are chasing one.
New Zealand: on their day NZ can beat anyone, especially if Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor an Kane Williamson are on song. But apart from Danny Vettori, one would have to say the bowling looks weak, Tim Southee should have produced a lot more since he burst on the international scene. NZ do have a great team spirit though, and are great fighters, and will ensure teams do no not take them lightly, however I think they lack that bit of class in depth, and getting out of their group against Pakistan and Bangladesh will be difficult in itself. I do think they will squeak into the Super Eights though, but feel that is as far as they will go.
In summary, I'd expect the Super Eight qualifiers to not bring any surprises, so England and India from Group A, Australia and West Indies from B, Sri Lanka and South Africa from C, and Pakistan and New Zealand from D. My semi finalists are Sri Lanka, West Indies, India and South Africa, with Sri Lanka beating West Indies in an exciting final.
To me Sri Lanka have the right blend of youth and experience, have game changers with both bat and ball, are comfortable chasing or defending a total, and just as important will embrace the pitch and humid conditions more than some other teams, and will have thousands of fans in packed stadiums going wild in their national team support. And in Mahela Jayawardene, they have a captain who everyone is behind and respects.
Ok, so my statement may be a bold one, but let's look at the facts:
1. Sri Lanka are used to the humid conditions; yes most top international T20 players experience hot conditions in the IPL and The Big Bash in Australia, but nothing quite compares to the humidity of a clammy night in Colombo. Being used to the conditions is certainly in Sri Lanka's favour, and of detriment to Australia and England, who are fielding some very inexperienced players at international level.
2. Home support; the ferociously fanatical support of a national side cannot be underestimated in T20 cricket. Having a home crowd behind you can inspire a bowler like Malinga to spear in a yorker, or a batsman like Dilshan to scoop a six. Also the crowds cheering and singing, or bands hammering the drums can help a team build momentum, in batting, or in the field. All Sri Lanka games in the tournament promise to be sell-outs, with over 90% being local supporters.
3. Mahela Jayawardene; an inspirational captain of the side, I would expect Mahela to find the peak of his batting prowess come the latter stages of the tournament. A complete batsman, and dominant on home soil, Mahela is comfortable against either the opening pace bowlers or spinners. He also has the full backing, respect and admiration of the whole team, and that is vital when backs are against the wall, and you need one or two players to rise to the occasion and put a performance for the captain and the team.
4. Lasith Malinga; he is arguably one of the best quick bowlers in T20 international cricket, especially at the business end of the innings, where his inswinging yorkers have become the most feared ball in T20 cricket. The fans will go wild in their Malinga wigs if he is on song.
5. Tillakaratne Dilshan; although not at his best of a couple of years ago, at T20 level you can never write off an explosive player such as Dilshan. He may follow a couple of duck innings with a big 50 at a run rate of 200+ in the next big game. Plus his underestimated spin bowling could play a key part in Sri Lanka's quest for glory. Dilshan also remains one of the best fielders at international level, a very important and sometimes forgotten part of the crash-bang-wallop T20.
6. Kumar Sangakkara; the legend of Kumar, adored by a nation, he has found a new lease of life with his batting since giving up captaincy after the last World Cup (50 overs) in 2011. Proof certainly seen by his recent three ICC awards. Along with AB De Villiers, and MS Dhoni, Sanga is undoubtedly up there amongst the best batsman-wicketkeepers. Sri Lanka will look at Sanga playing the Kallis role, letting the dashers and hitters play around him, although that's not to say Sanga can't accelerate when needed.
7. Middle to lower order biffers; for me this is an area where Sri Lanka have made great progress over the past 12 months. In Angelo Mathews, Jeevan Mendis and Thisara Perera, they now have batsmen who can hit the sixes in the latter stages of an innings. This will prove vital, as one of the criticisms in the past of the Sri Lankan batting line up is that if Dilshan, Mahela or Sanga didn't score decent runs, Sri Lanka would fail. There seems to be a more balanced look to the Sri Lanka batting line up now. And with confident and talented youngsters such as Thiramanne, Chandimal and Munaweera in the squad, batting depth is not an issue.
8. Mendis v Mendis; in both Ajantha and Jeevan, Sri Lanka have two Mendis spinners who could both do serious damage to the opposition. Ajantha seems to be rejuvenated after being re-selected into the team, and his carram ball is always dangerous.
9. Options for the captain; with several all-rounders in the squad (Dilshan, Mathews, Perera, J Mendis), Mahela will have options with who to give the ball to in addition to Malinga, Kulasekera and A Mendis. If the decision is to go with the extra batsman, for instance leaving out Kula, or resting Malinga, then the captain can still field a strong bowling unit.
Looking at the other teams in the tournament, Afghanistan have some fairly good batsman, but could struggle in the field with their inexperience at the highest level. However they may cause England some problems.
Ireland may have found their peak last year the 50 over World Cup and Zimbabwe just don't look strong enough.
None of these three are expected to progress out of their tough group stages.
Bangladesh: continue to flatter to deceive. They undoubtedly have the talent in their side to get out of their group (they would fancy beating both New Zealand and Pakistan on a given day), and will be reliant on Tamim Iqbal up the order with the bat, and Abdur Razzak could do well on the spinning Sri Lankan wickets. Bangladesh v New Zealand could be one of the most competitive group games, however I'd expect NZ to edge it.
England: side looks too inexperienced to me, a lot of bits and part players, and an inexperienced and hot headed captain in Stuart Broad. In the hot and humid conditions, with fans going wild, will the alien conditions suit this England side. The facts are that England just don't seem to do well on the sub-continent. Having said that, if the likes of Morgan, Hales, Buttler, and Bairstow click with the bat, anything's possible in T20 cricket, and spinner Danny Briggs is one to keep an eye on. But, realistically, if this England side makes it to the semi-finals, they would have done well.
Australia: similar to England, some inexpeienced players, particularly in the bowling, and apart from Shane Watson, the Aussie bowling looks extremely poor for the Sri Lankan pitches. Batting will be their strength, Watson, Warner, and the Hussey brothers. I'd expect Australia to bow out at the Super Eight stage.
West Indies: can see them go far, as with power batting from Gayle, Pollard, Dwayne Bravo, Russell, Sammy and Samuels you would never right off the Windies in a run chase. Mental toughness under pressure remains a problem for them though, but IF that batting line up performs consistently, you would pencil them in for a semi final spot at least. And at long last the Windies seem to have unearthed a little gem of a spinner in Narine, who will play such a key role for them in the bowling ranks. One could argue if Windies bat first then Narine is their key to success, above Gayle in fact, although the latter's spin bowling will also come into play on the turning wickets.
India: you can never write off the Indians in this format of the game, in Sri Lankan conditions, and they will be one of the tournament favourites with some outstanding battiing talents in Sehwag, Kohli, Gambhir, Yuvraj and MS Dhoni. However you get the feeling sometimes watching India play these days that several players are more concerned about their ever-bulging wallets rather than playing for team India. Have they gone a bit stale since their 50 over World Cup win? Certainly Sehwag gives one the impression that getting out early doors doesn't concern him. A lot depends on MS getting the best out of the likes of Sehwag, whilst looking to Kohli to showcase his talents on the big stage. India's spinners look solid enough with Harbajhan, Ashwin and Yuvi, and Zaheer is still a class act, if he has got over his injury problems. In spite of their talent throughout the team though, you do feel when push comes to shove, they will still rely on their national hero MS Dhoni to pull them through a tight match. If Dhoni has a great tournament then expect India to be Sri Lanka's biggest challenge to the trophy.
South Africa: under the sub-continent conditions you do feel that the likes of Steyn, Morne Morkel, and Wayne Parnell might not be as effective, and that bowlers such as Botha, Peterson and even JP Duminy will play a large part for the Proteas bowling. With regards to their batting SA can boast three of the best in Amla, Kallis and AB de Villiers, and JP is always a quick scorer in T20. Also one cannot forget the exciting Richard Levi in the opening slot. The memory of AB destroying Steyn in one over in the IPL including that extra cover drive for six of a leg stump yorker, remains very strong indeed. You would certainly back the batting to chase down a total more than defend one. If they have recovered their energy from the recent England tour, where Amla, AB and Kallis played in all three formats, a semi final beckons for this exciting team.
Pakistan: the enigma of international cricket. They play to extremes- natural ability is unquestionable, but on the other side of the coin, mental strength and application is their biggest downfall. However having won one T20 trophy and being runners up as well, they do have good pedigree in the shorter game, where long stays at the crease and application are not as important as test match or 50 over cricket. It will be a big test for skipper Mohammed Hafeez in his first major tournament in his new role, and with opening the batting plus bowling many overs, you'd have to question if it's going to be too much pressure on one man's shoulders. Kamran Akmal will also need to find improvement behind the stumps as taking wickets in T20 is vital. Pakistan's batting, without the experience of Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq, one would think will be their ultimate downfall. On paper they have best bowling unit of the competition, the ever dangerous swing of Umar Gul and the spin geniuses of Saaed Ajmal, Boom-Boom Afridi, with more than able support from Hafeez, will always keep Pakistan in the game if they set a total in excess of 140. However the problem for Pakistan lies in a run chase, and you would not make Pakistan favourites when chasing above 140 themselves. For this reason I think Pakistan will go out at the Super Eight stage. To get to the semis and beyond you'd prefer a team who is as comfortable defending a total as they are chasing one.
New Zealand: on their day NZ can beat anyone, especially if Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor an Kane Williamson are on song. But apart from Danny Vettori, one would have to say the bowling looks weak, Tim Southee should have produced a lot more since he burst on the international scene. NZ do have a great team spirit though, and are great fighters, and will ensure teams do no not take them lightly, however I think they lack that bit of class in depth, and getting out of their group against Pakistan and Bangladesh will be difficult in itself. I do think they will squeak into the Super Eights though, but feel that is as far as they will go.
In summary, I'd expect the Super Eight qualifiers to not bring any surprises, so England and India from Group A, Australia and West Indies from B, Sri Lanka and South Africa from C, and Pakistan and New Zealand from D. My semi finalists are Sri Lanka, West Indies, India and South Africa, with Sri Lanka beating West Indies in an exciting final.
To me Sri Lanka have the right blend of youth and experience, have game changers with both bat and ball, are comfortable chasing or defending a total, and just as important will embrace the pitch and humid conditions more than some other teams, and will have thousands of fans in packed stadiums going wild in their national team support. And in Mahela Jayawardene, they have a captain who everyone is behind and respects.
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